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8:10 PM Pakistan's Economic Survey of 2009-2011
Agriculture sector posted a modest growth of 1.2 per cent during the outgoing fiscal year against the growth target of 3.8 per cent. However, it provided much needed support to boost exports, revival of manufacturing sector and responsible for upbeat in the consumption, says Economic Survey for 2010-11 released here on Thursday. Major crops, accounting for 31.1 per cent of agricultural value added, registered a negative growth of 4 per cent for second year in a row mainly because of decrease in production of rice and cotton by 29.9 per cent and 11.3 per cent, respectively as a result of 2010 floods, but still higher output prices are manifested in higher production and import of durables, the Economic Survey says.In contrast, minor crops accounting for 10.9 per cent of overall agriculture value addition, grew by 4.8 per cent compared to the target of 3 per cent and massive negative growth of 7.8 per cent last year.Almost all major crops breached the target except sugarcane where production exceeded the target. Wheat which accounts for 13.1 per cent of agriculture and 39 per cent of major crops witnessed a record crop at 24.2 million tons – higher by 3.9 per cent over last year’s crop size.The rice crop recorded lowest-ever production since 2002 owing to massive destruction of crops in devastating floods. Another victim of floods is the important crop of cotton, which witnessed 9 percent decline in its production at 11.6 billion bales. Other major crops: jawar, tobacco, barley, oil seeds and maize depicted mixed trends but their stake is small.Minor crops accounting for 10.9 per cent of value-added in overall agriculture, grew by 4.8 per cent which is improvement on the 7.8 per cent negative growth of last year.Production of pulses declined by 18.1 per cent which added to the supply side shock to food inflation.Vegetables contributed much of the growth in the minor crops by growing at 9.5 per cent. The production of all fruits grew by 1.8 per cent, out of which production of citrus fruits grew marginally by 0.9 per cent whereas production of other fruits, including dry fruits, grew by 2.1 per cent.Given the enormous price induce ment, the agriculture sector is likely to spearhead economic growth in the next fiscal year, forecasts the survey.Smaller sub-sector fishing recorded a modest growth of 1.9 per cent while forestry continued its historical negative growth by declining by 0.4 per cent, points out the survey.The survey estimates that the share of agriculture in GDP gradually shrank to 20.9 per cent in 2010-11 from 25.9 per cent of GDP in 19992000.Erosion of growth momentum in the sector raises some serious policy questions regarding its viability.From water management to disbursement of agriculture credit, mechanisation, availability of quality inputs including seeds, fertiliser and pesticides, a holistic policy package aimed at addressing structural issues is required to reap full potential of agriculture, the survey notes.As a result of inordinate spike in prices of major crops, an additional amount of Rs342 billion was transferred to rural areas alone during the fiscal year 2010-11.Contrary to this, only Rs329 billion were transferred to rural areas on account of higher prices of major crops during the past eight years, according to the survey.Pakistan is faced with increasing water scarcity and depending on assumptions of various future demand scenarios, annual water requirement at canal head could be in 135 to 170 million acre feet (MAF) range in the coming years, says the survey.With existing irrigation mechanism reportedly working on around 50 per cent efficiency, the canal head withdrawals in Kharif 2010 decreased by 21 per cent and stood at 53.4 MAF as compared to 67.3 MAF during the same period last year.During the Rabi 2010-11 season, the canal head withdrawals show a significant change as it remained at 34.6 MAF as compared to 25 MAF during the same period last year.Pointing out that the consumption of livestock products increased significantly, the survey says that the price of livestock items remained a contributor to inflationary pressures in the country’s economy for some time.The share of livestock in the value addition of agriculture sector inched up to 55.1 per cent in 2010-11 as against 50.8 per cent in 2006-07. The sector is providing livelihood to about 36 million people in rural areas who depend directly on livestock and dairy sector, accounting for 11.5 per cent of GDP.
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